Who’s in danger of losing their seat in the North Carolina map redraw?

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— North Carolina’s state legislature is racing to redraw congressional lines before they’re ordered to do so by a court, and the new map will at the very minimum push one Republican member of Congress out.

— Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick is the latest Democrat to mull an incredibly-late entry into the presidential primary, as donors and party leaders remain antsy about the field.

— Fourteen-term GOP Rep. Pete King announced Monday that he was retiring at the end of his term, opening up a potentially competitive race in a longtime Republican district on Long Island.

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks to Ally (amutnick@politico.com; @allymutnick) for her breakdown on what’s going on in North Carolina. Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com, or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the rest of the Campaign Pro team at sshepard@politico.com, dstrauss@politico.com and jarkin@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @DanielStrauss4 and @JamesArkin.

Days until the Louisiana gubernatorial election: 4

Days until the Iowa caucuses: 83

Days until the 2020 election: 357

THE MAP LINES — North Carolina’s state legislature is racing to redraw the congressional map before a court does it for them. But with the 10-member Republican delegation certain to take a hit under the new lines, there’s real doubt about which incumbents will survive.

The GOP-controlled state Senate is already at work on a map that would, at best, elect nine Republicans and four Democrats — and a final version could be ready as soon as this week. The consensus among GOP operatives is that Republican Rep. George Holding is the most at risk of losing his seat, which spans the Raleigh metro area and could easily become safe Democratic territory if it absorbs any more of Wake County. The congressman has signaled he is open to retirement should his district disappear. “I’ve talked to George, but we’re basically just watching to see what they come out with,” said Carter Wrenn, Holding’s consultant and a longtime strategist in the state.

A number of other Republican incumbents could see their seats become significantly more competitive, and districts near the state’s major cities are most at risk. Seats held by Republican Reps. Ted Budd and Mark Walker hug Greensboro, while newly elected Rep. Dan Bishop could be in trouble if his district takes in more of Charlotte. And in the western region of the state, Reps. Patrick McHenry and Mark Meadows split the liberal enclave of Asheville. Any new district that unites the city could be difficult terrain for a Republican.

Republican Rep. David Rouzer could have a tough reelection if his new district is redrawn to include the city of Fayetteville. In an interview last month, he said he was prepared to run in a swing district: “I like the competitive races actually. I don’t like the ones where you got it made year in and year out.” (He won the seat in 2014 after a narrow loss to then-Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre in 2012.)

Members of the state’s Republican delegation are jockeying behind-the-scenes to safeguard their political future. Bishop and Rep. Greg Murphy may be the best-positioned to influence the process; Both served in the General Assembly until they won special elections this year.

One wild card: If the legislature passes an aggressive, 9-to-4 map, operatives from both parties are skeptical the three-judge panel would approve such a partisan split or that the map could withstand a challenge from the Democratic-linked plaintiffs. A successful appeal likely places the redraw in the hands of a special master, undoing any effort by Republicans in Raleigh to make the best of the end-of-decade redraw.

ANOTHER ONE? — Patrick is the latest Democrat who is reconsidering running for president. “The Massachusetts Democrat has been reaching out to contacts in early voting states,” POLITICO’s Stephanie Murray reported. “Patrick is looking to announce as early as this week, according to one of the sources.” The New York Times’ Alex Burns, who first broke the news, reported that Patrick “personally began reaching out to potential staffers” on Monday, and that he told Joe Biden “in a phone conversation last week that he was weighing a bid, but did not indicate that he had fully decided to run.”

Much like Michael Bloomberg, there would be structural barriers to getting into the race now. Patrick has already missed the filing deadline in Alabama, and Arkansas’ filing deadline is today. Stephanie also notes that New Hampshire’s deadline is Friday. Another potential liability? Patrick works for Bain Capital, the same company Democrats spent the 2012 cycle completely ravaging.

POLLS POLLS POLLS — A Quinnipiac Poll in New Hampshire shows a tight race in the first-in-the-nation primary state. Biden sits at 20 percent, Elizabeth Warren is at 16 percent, Pete Buttigieg is at 15 percent and Bernie Sanders is at 14 percent. Tulsi Gabbard is at 6 percent, the last candidate at or above 5 percent (1,134 likely Democratic primary voters; Nov. 6-10; +/- 3.8 percentage point MOE).

The poll also tested Bloomberg among likely Democratic primary voters. 2 percent said they’d definitely vote for him, 37 percent said they’d consider it and a majority, 54 percent, said they definitely would not vote for him (636 likely Democratic primary voters; Nov. 8-10; +/- 5 percentage point MOE).

THE DEBATE STAGE — The poll also gets two candidates closer to qualifying for the December debate. Gabbard’s 6 percent is her third qualifying poll that she needs for December, and she’s about 6,000 donors away from the donor threshold, as of Friday. Andrew Yang hit 4 percent in the poll — his second qualifying poll, and he’s already hit the donor mark. Qualification closes in a month on Dec. 12.

AD WARS — Sanders launched a new ad in Iowa that hits on corruption before pivoting to Sanders’ policy agenda. “Donald Trump is the most corrupt president in American history. But the greed and corruption undermining our democracy is bigger than one man, and so is the solution,” Sanders said in the ad.

STILL KICKING — Sen. Michael Bennet’s campaign said he’s expanding operations in New Hampshire. His campaign will open three new field offices and is “aggressively hiring” more staffers in the state, WMUR’s John DiStaso reported.

Bennet significantly scaled back his Facebook spending last week. From Nov. 3-9 he spent less than $100 on ads on the site, down from a weekly average of five-figures in the previous two months. Pros can read more in our weekly Facebook roundup.

CONVENTION SPOTTING — The top fundraiser for the 2020 Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee is out. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Daniel Bice reported that Marcus Switzer is no longer the host committee’s fundraising director and that he’s returned to Buttigieg’s campaign. Leah Israel, a former aide to Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), is now running the $70 million fundraising campaign. Bice reported they hoped to raise $20 million by Jan. 1.

RETIREMENT WATCH — King, the longtime Long Island GOP heavyweight, is calling it quits, setting up a competitive (and likely costly) race in NY-02. “The prime reason for my decision was that after 28 years of spending 4 days a week in Washington, D.C., it is time to end the weekly commute and be home in Seaford,” King wrote in a Facebook post announcing his decision.

“It’s going to be an extremely difficult seat for the Republican Party to hold,” former Suffolk County Republican Chairman John Jay LaValle told POLITICO New York’s Bill Mahoney and Anna Gronewold. Jackie Gordon, a Democratic councilwoman from Babylon, is the only notable Democrat who was in the race before King announced his retirement. Liuba Grechen Shirley, the Democrat who lost to King by about six points in 2018, also said she is “seriously considering another run for Congress.” On the Republican side: former Rep. Rick Lazio emailed National Journal’s Alex Clearfield, writing: “I will be thinking through what that means for the district – beyond the obvious.”

BAYOU BRAWL — A new poll ahead of Saturday’s Louisiana gubernatorial runoff has the race as a jump ball. A Gray Television/Mason-Dixon Polling survey has Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards at 48 percent to Republican Eddie Rispone’s 46 percent (625 likely voters; Nov. 5-7; +/- 4 percentage point MOE).

— Early voting was also near historic highs. Nearly 490,000 voters cast early ballots last week for the runoff, the Monroe News Star’s Greg Hilburn reported, up more than 100,000 ballots from the mid-October primary.

— Edwards also released a pair of television ads. The first ad promotes his education policy, with a supporter saying a vote for Rispone “would drag us back to the days of [former Gov. Bobby] Jindal.” The second ad criticizes Rispone for criticizing Edwards’ military service.

THE HOUSE MAP — Republican trucking executive Jerry Langer is considering a run against Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill in NJ-11, POLITICO New Jersey’s Ryan Hutchins writes for Pros. Langer said he would self-fund should he decide to run. Sherrill, a high-profile member of the freshman class, had nearly $1.7 million in the bank by the end of September.

— Democrats who flipped California districts in 2018 are seeing their districts become more Democratic. “In almost every House district in which a Republican incumbent lost in 2018, Democrats have either expanded their lead in registered voters or narrowed the registration gap,” the Los Angeles Times’ John Myers reported, citing data from the state Secretary of State.

— Republican Aliscia Andrews, a Marine Corps veteran, announced a bid to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton in VA-10.

— Democrat Maya Rockeymoore Cummings, the chair of the state party and widow of former Rep. Elijah Cummings, will run for her late-husband’s seat in MD-07, per The Baltimore Sun’s Luke Broadwater reported.

— Republican Paul Duggan, who narrowly lost the GOP primary for Bergen County executive in New Jersey in 2018, said he’ll run to challenge Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer in NJ-05, per the New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein.

— FIRST IN SCORE — Democrat Renee Hoyos is running in the deep-red TN-02 against GOP Rep. Tim Burchett, launching a video highlighting her background as director of the Tennessee Clean Water Network.

FIRST IN SCORE — AD WARS — EDF Action is launching a $600,000 mail and digital campaign backing a handful of battleground members of Congress. It includes Democratic Reps. Harley Rouda (CA-48), Cindy Axne (IA-03), Sean Casten (IL-06) Joe Cunningham (SC-01) and A. Donald McEachin (VA-04) and GOP Reps. Francis Rooney (FL-19, who is retiring) and Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01).

— Club for Growth is also launching anti-impeachment ads against five battleground Democrats: Casten, Cunningham, Jared Golden (ME-02), Ben McAdams (UT-04) and Rouda. The campaign is backed by an initial $10,000 buy.

DON’T LET THE DOOR HIT YA — Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell seems ready to say goodbye to GOP Gov. Matt Bevin. “I’m sorry Matt came up short, but he had a good four years and all indications are, barring some dramatic reversal on the recanvass, we’ll have a different governor in three weeks,” McConnell said, per the Lexington Herald-Leader’s Daniel Desrochers.

— A group of Twitter users seemingly intentionally spread unsubstantiated allegations of election fraud in Kentucky on Twitter on the night of the election, as Bevin claims that there was irregularities in the race (for which he provided no proof), The New York Times’ Matthew Rosenberg and Nick Corasaniti reported. More: “Twitter, in response to questions from The Times, said the trolling and spread of disinformation about the Kentucky race appeared scattershot and haphazard, but largely appeared to originate in the United States.”

TECH TALK — Twitter representatives suggested to advertisers that “ads that spread awareness about issues of national significance would still be allowed,” after a proposed ban on political ads take effect, BuzzFeed News’ Alex Kantrowitz reported. “Ads that advocate for a specific candidate or piece of legislation will be banned, according to one advertiser briefed on Twitter’s plans.” Twitter is set to unveil more details on their policy on Nov. 15.

THE SENATE MAP — Kentucky state Rep. Charles Booker, a young progressive Democrat in the state, announced that he is exploring a run for the Senate. HuffPost’s Travis Waldron has more.

THE GOVERNATORS — Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Mont.) will not be at the first Montana GOP gubernatorial primary debate on Nov. 26, citing previous commitments for Thanksgiving, KTVQ’s Mike Dennison wrote. State Attorney General Tim Fox and state Sen. Al Olszewski will both attend.

CONSULTANTS’ CORNER — Meredith Kelly is joining Sena Kozar Strategies as a partner. She was communications director for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s (D-N.Y.) presidential bid and the DCCC during the 2018 cycle.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I ‘mustache’ you for a favor. Please consider learning more about the Movember movement!” — Michigan Republican Senate candidate John James on Twitter, who is sporting a mustache for the charity drive.

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